pale blue dot -carl sagan-第52章
按键盘上方向键 ← 或 → 可快速上下翻页，按键盘上的 Enter 键可回到本书目录页，按键盘上方向键 ↑ 可回到本页顶部！
————未阅读完？加入书签已便下次继续阅读！
mid…century call into the depths of space will not arrive until around the year 2350。 If they're farther away； of course； it will take longer； and if much farther away； much longer。 The interesting possibility arises that our first receipt of a message from an alien civilization； a message intended for us （not just an all…points bulletin）； will occur in a time when we are well situated on many worlds in our solar system and preparing to move on。
With or without such a message； though； we will have reason to continue outward； seeking other solar systems。 Or—even safer in this unpredictable and violent sector of the Galaxy—to sequester some of us in self…sufficient habitations in interstellar space； far from the dangers constituted by the stars。 Such a future would； I think； naturally evolve； by slow increments； even without any grand goal of interstellar travel：
For safety； some munities may wish to sever their ties with the rest of humanity—uninfluenced by other societies； other ethical codes； other technological imperatives。 In a time when ets and asteroids are being routinely repositioned； we will be able to populate a small world and then cut it loose。 In successive generations； as this world sped outward； the Earth would fade from bright star to pale dot to invisibility； the Sun would appear dimmer； until it was no more than a vaguely yellow point of light； lost among thousands of others。 The travelers would approach interstellar night。 Some such munities may be content with occasional radio and laser traffic with the old home worlds。 Others； confident of the superiority of their own survival chances and wary of contamination； may try to disappear。 Perhaps all contact with them will ultimately be lost； their very existence forgotten。
Even the resources of a sizable asteroid or et are finite； though； and eventually more resources must be sought elsewhere—especially water； needed for drink； for a breathable oxygen atmosphere； and for hydrogen to power fusion reactors。 So in the long run these munities must migrate from world to world； with no lasting loyalty to any。 We might call it 〃pioneering；〃 or 〃homesteading。〃 A less sympathetic observer might describe it as sucking dry the resources of little world after little world。 But there are a trillion little worlds in the Oort et Cloud。
Living in small numbers on a modest stepmother world far from the Sun； we will know that every scrap of food and every drop of water is dependent on the smooth operation of a
farsighted technology； but these conditions are not radically unlike those to which we are already accustomed。 Digging resources out of the ground and stalking passing resources seem oddly familiar； like a forgotten memory of childhood： It is； with a few significant changes； the strategy of our hunter…gatherer ancestors。 For 99。9 percent of the tenure of humans on Earth； we lived such a life。 Judging from some of the last surviving hunter…gatherers just before they were engulfed by the present global civilization； we may have been relatively happy。 It's the kind of life that forged us。 So after a brief； only partially successful sedentary experiment； we may bee wanderers again…more technological than last time； but even then our technology； stone tools and fire； was our only hedge against extinction。
If safety lies in isolation and remoteness； then some of our descendants will eventually emigrate to the outer ets of the Oort Cloud。 With a trillion etary nuclei； each separated from the next by about as much as Mars is from Earth； there will be a great deal to do out there。*
* Even if we are not in any particular hurry； we may be able by then to make small worlds move faster than we can make spacecraft move today。 If so； our descendants will eventually overtake the two Voyager spacecraft—launched in the remote twentieth century—before they leave the Oort Cloud； before they make for interstellar space。 Perhaps they will retrieve these derelict ships of long ago。 Or perhaps they will permit them to sail on。
The outer edge of the Sun's Oort Cloud is perhaps halfway to the nearest star。 Not every other star has an Oort Cloud； but many probably do。 As the Sun passes nearby stars； our Oort Cloud will encounter； and partially pass through； other et clouds； like two swarms of gnats interpenetrating but not colliding。 To occupy a et of another star will then be not much more difficult than to occupy one of our own。 From the frontiers of some other solar system the children of the blue dot may peer longingly at the moving points of light denoting substantial （and well…lit） planets。 Some munities—feeling the ancient human love for oceans and sunlight stirring within them—may begin the long journey down to the bright； warm； and clement planets of a new sun。
Other munities may consider this last strategy a weakness。 Planets are associated with natural catastrophes。 Planets may have pre…existing life and intelligence。 Planets are easy for other beings to find。 Better to remain in the darkness。 Better to spread ourselves among many 〃small and obscure worlds。 Better to stay hidden。
ONCE WE CAN SEND our machines and ourselves far from home； far from the planets—once we really enter the theater of the Universe—we are bound to e upon phenomena unlike anything we've ever encountered。 Here are three possible examples：
First： Starting some 550 astronomical units （AU） out—about ten times farther from the Sun than Jupiter； and therefore much more accessible than the Oort Cloud—there's something extraordinary。 Just as an ordinary lens focuses far…off images； so does gravity。 （Gravitational lensing by distant stars and galaxies is now being detected。） Five hundred fifty AU from the Sun—only a year away if we could travel at 1 percent the speed of light—is where the focus begins （although when effects of the solar corona； the halo of ionized gas surrounding the Sun； are taken into account； the focus may be considerably farther out）。 There； distant radio signals are enormously enhanced； amplifying whispers。 The magnification of distant images would allow us （with a modest radio telescope） to resolve a continent at the distance of the nearest star and the inner Solar System at the distance of the nearest spiral galaxy。 If you are free to roam an imaginary spherical shell at the appropriate focal distance and centered on the Sun； you are free to explore the Universe in stupendous magnification； to peer at it with unprecedented clarity； to eavesdrop on the radio signals of distant civilizations； if any； and to glimpse the earliest events in the history of the Universe。 Alternatively； the lens could be used the other way； to amplify a very modest signal of ours so it could be heard over immense distances。 There are reasons that draw us to hundreds and thousands of AU。 Other civilizations will have their own regions of gravitational focusing； depending on the mass and radius of their star； some a little closer； some a little farther away than ours。 Gravitational lensing may serve as a mon inducement for civilizations to explore the regions just beyond the planetary parts of their solar systems。
Second： Spend a moment thinking about brown dwarfs； hypothetical very low temperature stars； considerably more massive than Jupiter； but considerably less massive than the Sun。 Nobody knows if brown dwarfs exist。 Some experts； using nearer stars as gravitational lenses to detect the presence of more distant ones； claim to have found evidence of brown dwarfs。 From the tiny fraction of the whole sky that has so far been observed by this technique； an enormous number of brown dwarfs is inferred。 Others disagree。 In the 1950s； it was suggested by the astronomer Harlow Shapley of Harvard that brown dwarfs—he called them 〃Lilliputian stars〃—were inhabited。 He pictured their surfaces as warm as a June day in Cambridge； with lots of area。 They would be stars that humans could survive on and explore。
Third： The physicists B。 J。 Carr and Stephen Hawking of Cambridge University have shown that fluctuations in the density of matter in the earliest stages of the Universe could have generated a wide variety of small black holes。 Primordial black holes—if they exist—must decay by emitting radiation to space； a consequence of the laws of quantum mechanics。 The less massive the black hole； the faster it dissipates。 Any primordial black hole in the final stages of decay today would have to weigh about as much as a mountain。 All the smaller ones are gone。 Since the abundance—to say nothing of the existence—of primordial black holes depends on what happened in the earliest moments after the Big Bang； no one can be sure that there are any to be found； we certainly can't be sure that any lie nearby。 Not very restrictive upper limits on their abundance have been set by the failure so far to find short gamma ray pulses； a ponent of the Hawking radiation。
In a separate study； G。 E。 Brown of Caltech and the pioneering nuclear physicist Hans Bethe of Cornell suggest that about a billion non…primordial black holes are strewn through the Galaxy； generated in the evolution of stars。 If so； the nearest may be only 10 or 20 lightyears away。
If there are black holes within reach—whether they're as massive as mountains or as stars—we will have amazing physics to study firsthand； as well as a formidable new source of energy。 By no means do I claim that brown dwarfs or primordial black holes are likely within a few light…years； or anywhere。 But as we enter interstellar space； it is inevitable that we will stumble upon whole new categories of wonders and delights； some with transforming practical applications。
I do not know where my train of argument ends。 As more time passes； attractive new denizens of the cosmic zoo will draw us farther outward； and increasingly improbable and deadly catastrophes must e to pass。 The probabilities are cumulative。 But； as time goes on； technological species will also accrue greater and greater powers； far surpassing any we can imagine today。 Perhaps； if we are very skillful （lucky； I think； won't be enough）； we will ultimately spread far from home； sailing through the starry archipelagos of the vast Milky Way Galaxy。 If we e upon anyone else—or； more likely； if they e upon us—we will harmoniously interact。 Since other spacefaring civilizations are likely to be much more advanced than we； quarrelsome humans in interstellar space are unlikely to last long。
Eventually； our future may be as Voltaire； of all people； imagined：
Sometimes by the help of a sunbeam； and sometimes by the convenience of a et； ＇they＇ glided from sphere to sphere； as a bird hops from bough to bough。 In a very little time ＇they＇ posted through the Milky Way 。 。 。
We are； even now； discovering vast numbers of gas and dust disks around young stars—the very structures out of which； in our solar system four and a half billion years ago； the Earth and the other planets formed。 We're beginning to understand how fine dust grains slowly grow into worlds； how big Earthlike planets accrete and then quickly capture hydrogen and helium to bee the hidden cores of gas giants； and how small terrestrial planets remain paratively bare of atmosphere。 We are reconstructing the histories of worlds—how mai
